Value of Facebook Fans: Measurement and Accountability: Interview with Kimberly Struyk and Laurent Flores of CRM Metrix

Facebook has become a huge platform for marketers, yet it still lacks the sophisticated accountability and measurement methodology that market researchers are accustomed to on other advertising platforms. Laurent Flores and Kimberly Struyk of CRM Metrix have done some fantastic work on this topic, and we had a chance to ask them a few questions about the value of Facebook fans.

ARF: Why has it become so important for brands to assess the value of their Facebook fans?

Flores and Struyk: As the use of branded fan pages has exploded within the last two years, we need to understand if it is a worthwhile component within the media mix.   While fan pages are free to set up and are a cheaper alternative to traditional advertising avenues, the price of running a page has actually expanded as the time, resources and capital required to maintain them increase.  Unlike other Digital properties, Social Media moves at an exorbitant speed, growing the overall investment.

Content creation and consumption are moving so fast that accountability has been somewhat overlooked until now. Due to this shift in marketing plans, assigning a value to a Facebook fan page justifies the time spent managing the page and linking that to how much consumer action was taken.  Assessing fan page performance ultimately determines how much or how little it is doing for the bottom line while also revealing the page’s role in a larger strategy).

ARF: What are some of the key metrics brands should use to figure out the value of their fans?

Flores and Struyk: Knowing the “value of a Facebook fan” is a hot topic, but many marketers do not have the tools to place a figure on what Social Media does for brands.  From our primary research findings, there are underlying metrics that indirectly tie to value as suggested below.

METRICS EXPLANATION
Brand involvement profiling Investigates fan page campaign recruitment (in or out-of-market leads)
Fan page awareness & media mix drivers Defines which vehicle(s) create high value behaviors that result in a great ROE
Fan page activity type Describes the incremental actions taken by fans after visiting the fan page
Content consumption profile Discovers content type(s) that drive a call-to-action
Consumer ideation report Provides insight into if needs for visiting the page are delivered upon

From an accountability perspective, these metrics help page managers determine future directions for a page by showing if a complete overhaul is needed or if the page is on track with fan expectations.

ARF: What are some strategies brands can use their fan pages in order to transform their “fans” into “quality fans?”

Flores and Struyk: There is not a “one size fits all” strategy that can be applied across all categories and brands; instead, the answer lies at a brand-by- brand basis.  There is an overarching strategy that we caution against: The use of promotional content as a value strategy. In most cases, a promotion does capture new eyeballs, but on the flip side, promotions are a “get in, get out” acquisition that does not facilitate a need to fully absorb the brand experience.  Therefore, this approach is typically unsuccessful in maintaining ongoing interest that converts fans into quality fans.

However, on brand-by-brand basis, we suggest using a crowd sourcing/ ideation technique to understand strategies for achieving this type of conversion (e.g. BRANDED strategies are typically at the heart of why valuable fans originally involved themselves with the page).

ARF: What predictions would you make for the future of branding on social network sites such as Facebook?  How do you see the marketing value changing as we move forward?

Flores and Struyk: Facebook must ensure that consumers form a positive opinion about commercialization: If they are not sensitive to this, the future may not be so optimistic.  Below is a brief description of the potential future:

Near Term Marketing Value:

Campaign driven- Pages are no longer solely dependent on newsfeed updates for B2C conversations.  Instead, interactive campaigns will be sporadically executed to recruit fans (special occasion content, interactive programs, etc.), augmenting the top of the purchase funnel. 

Microsite FB experiences- Fan pages will continue to mimic micro-experiences, perhaps overtaking brand website utilization rates to move the branding needle.

Ecommerce expansion-With targeting features of FB advertising, transactions made directly on the platform will become more prevalent.  According to Forbes magazine, the buy rate increases about 18 times when fans do not have to click through to a site to buy.  This is ramped up even further by the Friend-to-Friend recommendation feature, which drives conversions at the bottom of the purchase funnel.

Long Term Speculations:

Similar to the recent timeline roll out, Facebook aspires that consumers touch the brand every day.   Newer fan page capabilities may lead to possible scenarios that marketers will need to tackle.

Social Pod Advertising- With the largest reach and active network across the world, Facebook will morph into an aggregator social media platform as the hub of interaction:  YouTube, Twitter, Skype, Oodle, and Gamification (for example) will be housed within Facebook, challenging advertisers to work within a one stop social pod.

ConTEXTual Mining Algorithm- Facebook may eventually develop an algorithm to analyze behavioral patterns that are a predictor of market status. Based on brand pages visited, wall conversations, liking (WOM) behaviors, referral source, etc., the algorithm will pinpoint the type of ads to serve (setting a new approach to brand building with awareness, equity building and purchase persuasion happening simultaneously).

These are merely speculations for the future, but one thing we can be certain about is that it will be tricky to balance consumer expectations with marketer benefits on Facebook. Facebook and marketers must both take care to ensure that fans do not abandon Facebook because they feel bombarded by advertising.

Want to hear more? Want to hear more? Laurent Flores and Kimberly Struyk will be speaking at the ARF Re:think 2012 Convention. Register Now

This post also appears on our Media Biz Bloggers page

Optimizing In-Store and Television ROI: Interview with Matthew Keylock of dunnhumbyUSA and Bill Harvey of TRA

Each year at the ARF Annual Convention, we are proud to give the stage to groundbreaking research. This year, attendees will have the chance to learn the results of a massive study from TRA and dunnhumbyUSA that attempts to redefine how we think about marketing tactics and brand sales. We spoke with Matthew Keylock of dunnhumbyUSA and Bill Harvey of TRA about their work.

ARF: Explain why this is such a landmark study.

Keylock and Harvey: There has never been a systematic, multi-case study undertaken that allows marketers to quantify the synergy of price cuts, in-store marketing and television advertising tactics. This is the first time that household-level data are being used to address the impact of these tactics on the individual household, and the first time it is being done on such a broad geographic scale. Previous studies have focused on small market research or marketing mix modeling, and that can present a challenge when marketers seek to translate and action those insights on a larger, more general scale. Meanwhile, the TRA/dunnhumbyUSA study leverages anonymous household-level purchase behavior data from 60 million households across the U.S. and the second-by-second measurement of TV viewing habits from more than 2 million set-top box households. The scale of the data allows for a more granular understanding of brand purchase behavior and ROI of marketing approaches. For this particular study, TRA and dunnhumbyUSA focused on heavily advertised CPG brands that average upward of $20 million in television advertising within the categories of toothpaste, yogurt, and cereal; and the impact of brand marketing messages within the three tactics previously named: price-cutting, in-store marketing and television advertising. The study breaks new ground in the industry for its robust representation of each of the three tactics, which allows a more thorough analysis.

ARF: What kinds of synergies did you find between TV and in-store? TV and price?  Did these finding surprise you?

Keylock and Harvey: Within the advertising and marketing community, we have historically accepted an inverse relationship between pricing and television advertising. Traditionally, for example, when brands go dark on TV, it is commonly believed that consumers are more price sensitive to the brand at the point of purchase in-store and when the brand is heavily advertised, they are less price sensitive.  We are excited to give ARF attendees a closer look at how these important tactics work in tandem and independently to drive brand sales.

ARF: How could your findings impact the way marketers determine and plan for ROI?

Keylock and Harvey: The study may lead to a common set of metrics for brands that apply across price cuts, in-store promotions and television advertisements. These findings can provide guidance for more accurate media buying and more strategic and effective allocation of marketing funds to determine budgets that will account for these marketing tactic synergies.  Guidelines derived from this study have the potential to significantly impact the coordination of in-store promotion and television advertising. With the complete results of the study, media planners will look to scheduling and placing television advertisements as they relate to in-store promotions and price cuts.  In addition, there is an opportunity to address challenges within the industry around “big data.” Many marketers struggle to effectively leverage their “big data” assets yet databases continue to grow in size and complexity. By giving marketers access to sophisticated measurement tools, that data can become valuable by creating the right insights to drive brand sales and sustainable business results.

Want to hear more? Matthew Keylock and Bill Harvey will be speaking at the ARF Re:think 2012 Convention on Monday, March 26.  Register now!

 

Matthew Keylock, Senior Vice President, New Business Development & Partnerships, dunnhumbyUSA is recognized as an industry leader in building winning customer strategies, helping to transform some of the world’s largest enterprises, including major retailers in North America, Europe and Asia. Keylock is responsible for building dunnhumbyUSA’s capabilities and customer base, providing foundational data solutions, insights, products, communication and media for companies within the retail, manufacturing, financial services, telecommunications, travel, automotive, utilities and e-commerce industry segments. Keylock also works to enhance and develop strategic partnerships that expand dunnhumby’s capabilities and innovation strategies.

Bill Harvey, Vice Chair and CRO, TRA, Inc.has spent over 35 years leading the way in the area of media research with special emphasis on the New Media. As the 24 year-old strategy head of the American Research Bureau (now Arbitron), he invented the Area of Dominant Influence or ADI, an audience-based definition of television markets that Nielsen emulated as the DMA, and which was called by Sales & Marketing Magazine “the most widely used marketing tool in the world today”. ADI has profoundly influenced the advertising and television industries. Founder of Next Century Media and New Electronic Media Science, third party research companies serving 70+ of the top 100 advertisers, as well as most of the major cable and satellite operators, networks, agencies, and other research companies; first to turn set top data into TV audience data to media research standards; leader of standard setting process in media measurement through ARF, AAAA, ANA; former executive of Arbitron, Interpublic, Grey Advertising, and OpenTV. Inventor of addressable commercials and passive peoplemeter concepts, consulted on PPM and Scanamerica with Arbitron, developed first automated marketing mix modeling system for General Foods. Initiated and spearheaded the writing of the industry privacy principles for the ANA, AAA, and ARF joint task force CASIE (Coalition for Advertiser Supported Information and Entertainment).

The Dividends of Best Practices for Social Media Studies: ARF Interview with Jacqueline Anderson, Miriam Eckert, and Gina Pingitore of J. D. Power & Associates

Here at the ARF, we are very concerned with research quality, and social media research is no different. Conscientious researchers need to make sure their data is valid and reliable, but since social media is relatively new, we don’t yet have a body of best practices to guide us. Enter Jacqueline Anderson, Miriam Eckert, and Gina Pingitore of J.D. Power & Associates. We spoke with them about data quality in social media research and their efforts to establish best practices.

ARF: In your opinion, why is it crucial that we standardize practices for social media studies? What are some of the specific issues that you see affecting credibility of social media studies?  How can they be addressed?

Anderson, Eckert, Pingitore: Right now social media research feels a bit like the “Wild West.” With so many tools of differing caliber available to the public anyone can sit down and run a social media “query.” In this environment, there is no standardization to the approach and the results vary greatly. Skeptics use this variation as a way to call the practice of social media into question. If anyone can get different results at any time why should companies rely on the results? By creating a set of best practices we can bring social media research to the next level, offering results that companies can really trust. Simple guidelines around how to build the queries and how to process the data can make the results more valid and reliable. These best practices will bring credence to this methodology, establishing it as a great addition to any researcher’s toolkit.

ARF: Why are queries so important for developing social media studies? What are the challenges in developing queries and interpreting their results?

Anderson, Eckert, Pingitore: Queries are the basis of all social media research. The old adage “garbage in, garbage out” is a perfectly applicable. Queries tell social media engines what to look for among the billions of data points that exist in the social sphere. The queries you build will greatly impact the data that you pull back to analyze. Simple brand level queries can result in a lot of spam, irrelevant comments, or non-user generated comments. In these instances the post-query cleaning process becomes much more burdensome and the results become less reliable and valid. There is an art and science to developing a perfect query. You want to confine the search enough so that your results are accurate, but you also don’t want to restrict your search too much so as to exclude potentially relevant data.

ARF: How can your findings help clients use social media more effectively?

Anderson, Eckert, Pingitore: Our findings will provide clients with some basic best practices that will help improve their social media research. Our examples will also give them information they can use to convince internal parties about the importance of taking the time to select the right tools and train properly when engaging in social media research. We often hear that clients aren’t given the resources internally (both time and funding wise) to select the best tools and really learn how to garner quality data from social media. Then, when the data comes back and is all over the place, those same people who wouldn’t dedicate resources to the process initially quickly dismiss social media research as a valid research methodology.

Our findings can also serve as guidelines clients can use when researching vendor partners. Using our findings they will be able to determine which service providers have actually taken the time to determine the science behind social media research.

Want to hear more? Jacqueline Anderson, Miriam Eckert, Gina Pingitore will be speaking at the ARF Re:think 2012 Convention on Tuesday, March 27. Register now!

This post also appears on our Media Biz Bloggers Page.

 

 

 

Personalized Mobile Coupons: Interview with Daryl Battaglia, Entrepreneur in Residence at Nielsen

Mobile is changing the face of marketing, and couponing is no exception. To better understand how consumers are using mobile coupons, we talked to an expert on the subject, Daryl Battaglia, Entrepreneur in Residence at Nielsen.

 

ARF: Who is using Mobile Coupons?

Daryl Battaglia: Our focus has been on Consumer Packaged Goods coupons delivered through smart phones.  We looked at users’ demographic profile, purchase behavior, and prior coupon usage – using a combination of retailer data, panel data, and customer surveys.

In CPG, mobile coupon users are a cross-section of shoppers and smart phone users, so for the most part the demographics reflect that.  Shoppers are more likely to be female.  Smart phone users are younger and more affluent.  However, mobile coupon users are not as young as smart phone users in general.  People of all ages do use mobile coupons.  In many cases, mobile coupons are delivered through the retailer’s mobile platform.  Those mobile coupon users tend to be among the retailer’s most loyal customers and spend more overall.  As a result of this profile, there are certain products they are more likely to buy.

To date, our research shows that mobile coupon users are primarily coupon enthusiasts.  They actively search for coupons and use them through a variety of sources – paper and a variety of digital channels, not just mobile.  They use some form of coupons nearly every time they shop.

ARF: Do mobile coupons make shopping more fun? Can consumers become “addicted” to mobile coupons?

Battaglia: Have you seen the show “Extreme Couponing” on TLC?  It certainly seems like they’re having fun, and they’re addicted.  But with mobile, the woman who climbed into dumpsters to find coupons from old newspapers will no longer need to do that!

Separate from the people on the show, there is a segment of consumers that really enjoy searching for deals and saving the most money possible.  Mobile is an exciting new avenue for them to search and save, which is appealing.

Many other consumers comment that mobile coupons are a convenience that makes their lives easier.  They like that they can select the coupons at any time or place – in the store or ahead of time.  They appreciate not needing to cut or print coupons, or worry about forgetting their coupons at home.  Once mobile coupons are available, most customers that were previously searching for those same coupons online, switch their usage to mobile.

The next step to make coupons even more convenient is to provide a personalized set of coupons for each customer.  Currently, you need to scan through many irrelevant coupons to find the ones that you’re interested in.  However, the display and delivery of coupons can be changed to make it easier to find the coupons you want.  The capability exists to predict which coupons a customer will be interested in, products they already buy and products they might buy in the future if offered a coupon.

Brands and retailers can also offer special deals to select customers based on their purchase history.  These additional offers can help make a customer feel valued and appreciated, even understood; and they are more likely to be loyal when they feel that connection.

ARF: Will smart-phones replace scissors?

Battaglia: Not anytime in the near future, but mobile is certainly gaining traction.  For now, mobile coupons are mainly being used by active existing coupon users.  It’s adding to their existing coupon usage, not replacing it.  We have not yet reached the tipping point where mobile coupons have widespread adoption or are replacing paper coupons.

For mobile coupons to grow, they need to be more available.  Relatively few retailers have the infrastructure in place to either scan your mobile device or to allow manufacturer coupons to be downloaded directly to your loyalty card.  As this technology is deployed by more retailers, along with delivering a compelling and personally relevant user experience, more consumers will begin to try and adopt mobile coupons.

Also, mobile coupons are just one element of the mobile shopping experience.  If mobile coupons are used in combination with the ability to maintain your shopping list, plan your meals, view recipes, earn rewards, and find items on sale, they will become a more integral and regular part of how consumers shop.

Want to hear more? Daryl Battaglia will be speaking at the ARF Re:think 2012 Convention on Monday, March 26 at 11:15 am. Register now!

This post also appears on our Media Biz Bloggers page.

Best of ANA Videos

Every year our founding association, the Association of National Advertisers (ANA), holds their fantastic Masters of Marketing Event. This event attracts an unparalleled audience of the top minds from major national and international brands. The ANA has made many video clips from the event available on their website, but we wanted to highlight our favorite four from 2011’s conference. These videos will give you some quick inspiration about the top issues facing today’s marketers.

1. Bob Liodice’s Opening Remarks at the Masters 

Bob Liodice, President and CEO of the ANA, discusses changes in the marketing industry and gives an overview of the insights presented at the 2011 ANA Masters of Marketing Conference. This is a great primer on current industry issues and a preview of the other videos we’ve selected as the Best of the ANA.

 

2. RadioShack: Looking Back to Move Forward

Lee Applebaum, EVP and CMO, discusses why Radio Shack has invested so heavily in social media and why they found it necessary to build partnerships with leading social media agencies to quickly build a world-class social media organization from the ground up. Applebaum’s comments evidence an exemplary understanding of both digital marketing and the consumer electronics category. This video provides a quick bit of inspiration for anyone embarking on a digital or social media marketing campaign.

 

3. CMO Roundtable

An impressive collection of CMOs, led by Advertising Age Editor, Abbey Klaassen, discusses the key metrics for their advertising. Hear Tony Pace, Chief Marketing Officer, Subway Franchisee Advertising Fund Trust; Barry Judge, Chief Marketing Officer, Best Buy Co., Inc.; Scott Remy, Chief Communications Officer, Nestlé S.A.; and John Felice, General Manager, Ford Lincoln Marketing, discuss why engagement metrics matter, and how they could be made even more effective. This video gives insight into the issues facing top marketing professionals at major brands.

 

4: Kraft Foods: Leap! Why It’s Time for Your Company to Make Big Moves

 

Need some motivation when dealing with complex business problems? Dana Anderson, Senior Vice President of Marketing Strategy and Communications at Kraft Foods, gives a stimulating speech about the skills we need to succeed in a VUCA world (= Volatility, U = Uncertainty, = Complexity, = Ambiguity).

We hope these videos have given you some inspiration as you tackle your own business challenges.

Visit the ANA for more.

 

 

Professor Thales Teixeira on “Viral Advertising via Ad Symbiosis: Self-Interested Sharing”

Marketers all want to make the next “viral” ad, but it’s not that simple. What makes people share ads with friends? What characteristics do viral ads have in common? We had the chance to talk with Thales Teixeira, Marketing Professor at the Harvard School of Business. Professor Teixeira’s work focuses on why people share and what content they’re inclined to share.

ARF: Why do viewers share ads?

Thales Teixeira: Consumer sharing of ads, the basis of viral advertising, has turned out to be a very uncertain and complicated process. My research breaks down the ad sharing process into three sequential consumer behaviors necessary for an ad to be successfully shared online: attraction, retention and sharing. First, viewers can’t avoid (e.g., skip) the ad. Second, they should watch the ad until the end. And third, conditional on viewing, they need to decide to share the ad with their acquaintances.  My research explains the ad features that facilitate, though not guaranteeing, that an ad will ‘survive’ these three stages so as to be on track to disseminate virally online.

Initially, we thought that people share ads to connect to others, to provide their acquaintances with content that they think has value, in an altruistic manner. It turns out that most sharing is done for self-interested motives. In one way another, consciously or not, the sender intends to gain ‘social capital’ in the process. It is not just about content. To create successful viral ads, brands need to enlist the right consumers to do the distribution job. Brands need to ask the question, ‘What’s in it for them?’ Providing desirable ad content (for example, novel humor), AND allowing them to gain social status in the process is the key to enlisting consumers to work on behalf of your brand. This ‘symbiosis’, wherein both senders and advertiser benefit, is what ads that have successfully gone viral have.

ARF: How can advertisers design to be sharable?

Teixeira: The tricky part is that just because a viewer may really like an ad, doesn’t mean she is also likely to share it. In particular, I found that although shocking content and humor may get people to watch an ad privately, it often works against their desire to share the spot. Bud Light’s “Clothing Drive” where the characters respond by removing clothes they’re wearing garnered high viewership but it was not as widely shared as other Bud Light ads. Even the blacked-out nudity was too shocking. The solution: Surprise but don’t shock.

ARF: Can you tell us about the effects of emotional delivery?  Were there any surprises in your findings?

Teixeira: Using facial-tracking technology we’ve found that ads that produce stable emotional states generally aren’t effective at engaging viewers for very long. The solution: Build an emotional roller coaster. Viewers are most likely to continue watching a video ad if they experience emotional ups and downs. This fits with psychological-research findings about human adaptability. When we come into a warm home on a cold winter day, or when we receive a pay raise, we experience pleasure, but the feeling is transitory; the novelty soon wears off. So advertisers need to briefly terminate viewers’ feelings of joy or surprise and then quickly restore them, creating an emotional roller coaster—much the way a movie does.  Surprisingly, giving the viewer the most amount of joy, surprise or other positive emotion in ads isn’t the best way to hold their attention.  Interrupting something good actually helps.

ARF: How can companies use these findings to develop ads?

Teixeira: Practically speaking, one clear means to develop better TV and online ads is to grab attention at the onset. Ads should evoke surprise followed by joyful or happy scenes, not the other way around, and alternate between high and low levels of joy. Entertaining the viewer first pays off to some extent. Using purely humor ads with the brand at the end is too high a price to pay with too little time left to persuade, the ultimate goal.

ARF: Why do viewers change the channel? What are views turn-offs and turn-ons?

Teixeira: Prominent branding puts off viewers. Using eye-tracking we discovered that viewers routinely focus on brand logos on-screen. This isn’t the boon it might seem: The more prominent or intrusive the logo, the more likely viewers are to stop watching— even if they know and like the brand. Why? People seem to have an unconscious aversion to being persuaded, so when they see a logo, they resist. The solution: Utilize “brand pulsing.” Smart advertising unobtrusively weaves the brand image throughout the ad. My experiments have shown that this can increase viewership by as much as 20%. One of the best examples of the technique is Coca-Cola’s animated “Happiness Factory” ad. It depicts a fantasy version of what happens inside a Coke machine when someone inserts money. A Coke bottle is shown repeatedly, but each appearance is quick.  So, if a primary goal is to get viewers to watch ads until the end, TV and online video ads should not show the brand logo too intrusively and should pulse it (on-off-on) whenever possible. One way to do this is to have the brand act as a hero in the story, as opposed to a persuading symbol. This technique also improves the ad’s virality potential.

Want to hear more? Professor Teixeira will be speaking at the ARF Re:think 2012 Convention on Tuesday, March 27 at 11:50 am. Register now! You can also read his report.

This article also appears on the ARF Media Biz Bloggers page

GirlApproved Reinvents Marketing and Design with Female Brilliance

Occasionally here at the ARF, we come across an idea that’s so provocative that we need more than a tweet or Facebook post to share it with you. This is one such occasion. Heidi Dangelmaier, founder of design firm GirlApproved recently emailed our CEO Bob Barocci about a fantastic Atlantic piece about her company.  The article quickly made the rounds in our office email and social networks, and I knew we had to share Dangelmaier’s fantastic endeavor with our blog audience as well.

Danglemaier has spent her career trying to create better technology and products for women. This was no simple task as Dangelmaier felt she needed to reinvent the design process from the ground up to eliminate the masculine bias that pervades the advertising world and our culture as a whole.

As Dangelmaier began working with girls, she realize that those girls born after 1988 have a different perspective because they’re the first generation to have been raised under the influence of social media. The “Post88s,” as Danglemaier has named them, approach branding with an empowered mentality that’s completely differently from that of other women. GirlApproved is dedicated to creating meaningful design experiences that appeal to the needs, standards, and values that define Post88s. Check out the theory behind the Post88s and make sure to pay a visit to GirlApproved. This is the kind of innovative marketing we love to see.

Going Beyond Listening – Recognizing Patterns and Thinking Through Them for Business Opportunity

My November 2nd workshop for Chicago-area ARF members concentrated less on the listening’s nuts and bolts – that’s in the book, anyway, and focused on hands-on experience. The 90-minute session had three interactive components: 1) rolling up the sleeves to gain experience with listening, 2) working on a case study to derive insights, and 3) going through a formal process to evaluate an insight and derive business opportunities for later exploration. For the third I adapted a popular technique from my days as  a working futures researcher.

Recognizing Patterns

The most interesting challenge I came across was the difficulty people had in working with their listening results from their case study exercise on Netflix. Attendees’ first instinct was to describe and categorize the results, an important step, but that’s not sufficient to discover. Yes, it’s important to know that people are concerned with library size, download speed and pricing, but what is underneath all of that? I encouraged them to try again, but this time to read across the results and use inductive reasoning to identify patterns or develop a theme that they could more fully investigate using the futures research technique I taught. After some trepidation they got into it and a few interesting themes emerged.

Going Beyond Patterns to Uncovering Business Opportunity

The theme the group explored was this: Netflix is a service that helps people enjoy their leisure time. For many, this was a revelation because it reflected how they thought about the role Netflix played in the lives of the posters and their own lives. They saw that issues around service delivery, operations and fees, while important day-to-day tactical concerns, speak to a larger, more strategic, business-building theme.  From there, the group explored the theme and started identifying new opportunities, but we ran out of time.

Attendees found this type of workshop very helpful. Several commented that it was too short – when did you last hear that? – and several expressed interest in a half-day session focused on their brands and issues.  If this type of workshop is of interest to your firm, contact me.

 

 

Jon Jenkins of NASA Talks Big Data

Marketers, media companies, agencies, and researchers frequently come to us with questions about how to make sense of the enormous data streams at their disposal. While we’re accustomed to doling out advice and pointing people to relevant studies on set-top-box data, scanner data, or clickstream data, we want to challenge the industry to think bigger when it comes to big data. So we went as big as we could—outer space. We caught up with Jon JenkinsSenior Research Scientist, SETI Institute at NASA Ames Research Center, and asked him how he makes actionable insights out of galaxies of data. We hope his answers will give you some perspective on how to deal with your own data issues, even if they’re merely terrestrial.

ARF: Can you briefly describe the research you do?

Jenkins: I develop science algorithms for processing photometric data from the Kepler mission to produce science archive products and to detect and characterize weak planetary signatures in the data. Our goal is to determine what fraction of stars in our galaxy host potentially habitable Earth-size planets. Kepler takes images of over 150,000 stars in order to detect small dips in the brightness caused by instances where a rocky planet like Earth passes in between the space telescope and the planet’s host star. We have to process the raw image data to calibrate it and extract brightness measurements for each star for each half hour interval. The pipeline corrects the data for instrumental effects and then searches for these very weak signatures in the data to identify stars that might have planets. The pipeline then conducts a series of diagnostic tests to make or break the confidence in the signature’s planetary nature. We furnish the list of stars with transit-like features and the diagnostics to the science team for follow up and analysis.

ARF: What are the biggest challenges you face in making sense of such large data sets?

Jenkins: The biggest challenge is to learn how various instrumental effects manifest themselves across the 95 million pixels in Kepler’s camera and across the ~200,000 stars we’ve observed since the start of the mission, each of which has its own unique behavior to consider.

Kepler is NASA’s first mission capable of finding Earth-size planets orbiting Sun-like stars. It’s an order of magnitude better than any previous space photometer and about 2 orders of magnitude better than any ground-based photometer. Kepler is collecting data with unprecedented precision, duration and contiguity. The photometer is exquisitely sensitive, otherwise it couldn’t do its job, but it’s also sensitive to its thermal state. We’re finding that the biggest challenge in finding the very small signals we’re looking for is caused by a combination of instrumental effects and the fact that most of our target stars appear to be more variable with respect to their brightness output than our Sun. Dealing with large data sets has forced us to design a set of processing clusters that can keep up with the data accumulation rate. However, we have moved the most computationally intensive parts of the pipeline, namely the identification and characterization of planetary signatures, to the Pleiades supercomputer at NASA Ames Research Center (which is also where the Kepler Science Operations Center is located).

We are learning about how to deal with the instrumental effects as we gain experience with the data and the spacecraft, and it is frustrating that we can’t instantaneously reprocess all the data as we upgrade the pipeline. I wish we could reprocess the data much faster than we can, as it will take us about 7 months to reprocess all the data we currently have and “catch” up with the new data with the new software we’re just about to release. We are limited by the speed with which we can pull data from the filestore and the number of processing cores we have available with our own clusters.

ARF: What kinds of general questions should researchers be asking when working with big data? Can you give any advice on how to conceptualize enormous datasets like those you work with?

Jenkins: I think it’s very important to think beyond the use case of the nominal processing when you are designing an automated pipeline that must process significant amounts of data, especially if that data set accumulates over time and full reprocessing is a necessity. I’m thinking specifically about the use case of accessing the data to diagnose problems with the software or with the instrument and the fact that the scientists and programmers who are evolving the software need to be able to access and work with large fractions of the data in order to do a credible job. If you design a pipeline to run well in an unsupervised environment and don’t think about how the people responsible for the quality of the data products need to interact with the data and how they need to prototype and test new algorithms, you may unintentionally hamstring your ability to move forward in solving the unknown problems that inevitably happen when you are breaking new ground in science and technology.

John Jenkins spoke at our Industry Leader Forum on October 27, 2011. This post originally appeared on our MediaBizBloggers Site.

John LaRocca of dunnhumbyUSA on Turning Data into Insight

Set-top-box data, loyalty card data, cookie data, and more have created vast databases of customer data. While this gives marketers great opportunities to reach receptive customers, making sense of big data can be a challenge. We caught up with John LaRocca, Vice president, Strategic Partnerships at dunnhumbyUSA to get his expert opinion on making business sense of massive data sets.

ARF: What are the most exciting new data sources you’ve been able to use in the last decade?

John LaRocca: As someone who has spent a career analyzing and gleaning insights from syndicated panel and point-of-sale databases and shopper loyalty card data, today is a tremendous opportunity to better understand customers in ways we never thought possible. Although much of the data is anonymous, this type of data allows us to understand the behavior and motivations of a larger universe of customers. It gives us the resources to personalize an experience and deliver value through relevance in areas like assortment, pricing and promotions, for example. It gives us the tools identify customer growth and attrition and empowers brands and retailers to develop better relationships with their best customers.

There is an effort today to associate these databases with customer data from other sources, to develop a better understanding of the customer on the path to purchase. These efforts are revolutionizing the advertising industry, for example, where ROI and effectiveness has traditionally been difficult to measure and targeting has largely been based on panel-based demographics. At dunnhyumbyUSA, I am responsible for building collaborative partnerships with other data and solutions providers to create new solutions and enable our clients to deliver more value to customers in impactful ways. We have a collaborative agreement with comScore to measure the effectiveness of online advertising, pairing online and in-store behavior. We have a similar agreement with TRA, which measures the television viewing habits of two million set-top box households, to develop a similar understanding of the effectiveness of television advertising planning that is also based on actual purchases.

Integrating a customer-driven approach across channels, connecting in-store with online, for example, begins to shed light on a shopper’s decision process throughout the path to purchase. And I think we are only beginning to understand its potential.

ARF: What have we learned about customers from big data?

JL: We have certainly learned a lot of new things about the customer, but the data and resulting insights have also confirmed, quantified, and expanded some existing beliefs:

  • Each customer is unique and, therefore, brands need to treat them as such, including adopting a personalized approach in how they communicate with them, rather than at them.
  • Customers behave differently in different categories. A “price sensitive” customer is not equally price sensitive in every category. A “discriminating” customer is not consistently discriminating across the store.
  • People don’t behave as they claim, and that actual behavior is a better starting point for understanding WHY customers do what they do than merely asking them. And when you link actual behavior with attitudes, you create insights that are game changing.
  • Demographics, psychographics and attitudinal data are poor tools for targeting and interpreting customer preferences because they drive generalizations, reinforce the myth of the “average” shopper and do not correlate with behavior.
  • Focusing on customer acquisition can be an expensive choice. At dunnhumby, we’ve found that it takes between 12 to 20 new customers to make up for the loss of just one committed customer. I think we will find out that this number increases dramatically as we gain a greater understanding of social networks.

ARF: What are some of the nagging problems you don’t think we can address because they’re too time-consuming, costly, or require too much processing power? Do you see the industry ever solving these problems?

JL: Many of the challenges companies face are due to both the quantity and complexity of the data available. Most companies collect data but struggle to understand how to use the data they collect effectively to drive business results and leverage data-driven insights throughout their organizations. Data itself is in danger of becoming a commodity. Any company can collect data, but the real value comes from leveraging that data to create even more valuable data (e.g., segments, dimensions), develop the right insights and discover the “customer /DNA.”

As databases continue to grow, real-time reporting is a challenge. There are more data dimensions to measure across multiple products, geographies, time periods, and customer segments. For example, online shopping has created this long tail of UPCs because there is no limit to the number that can be “shelved” in the digital store. Thus, the number of items in the report has grown significantly and will continue to do so.

It isn’t only the explosion of raw data, but the complexity it drives in the data cube that creates the reporting challenge. There are more disparate sources of customer behavioral data — from loyalty cards, search/browsing, social, mobile, and set-top-box data, among others – each with aggregation and manipulation challenges, that have created opportunities to generate an increasing number of behavior-based customer segments to report, analyze, and model. This complexity creates an issue with the timeliness of insights. People have become accustomed to simplified, instantaneous results and so, when they have to wait an hour to two, or overnight, it creates a lot of frustration.

To put it simply, we have the database management and business intelligence tools to find the needle in the haystack but the haystack is now bigger. I don’t believe that these issues are too great to solve. The industry typically finds a creative way to solve its problems.

John LaRocca is Vice President, Strategic Partnerships at dunnhumbyUSA responsible for developing the company’s partnership strategy within media and analytics, identifying and leveraging collaborative partnerships with companies that have complementary data assets and capabilities in order to develop innovative, customer-driven solutions for dunnhumby clients. He plays a critical role in enhancing dunnhumby’s media measurement solutions and works to expand the company’s capabilities in this area.

This post originally appeared on our MediaBizBlogger site.